If Polymarket forecasts are so accurate, why are only 12% of wallets profitable?

According to recent data, only 12.7% of wallets on Polymarket are in profit. That raises a question—how can a platform known for accurate predictions have so few winners?

Looking deeper into the numbers, just 2,138 users managed to earn more than $1,000, while the majority walked away with less than $100 in profits. That’s pretty slim, right? About 7,400 wallets saw earnings between $100 and $1,000, but considering nearly 11 million transactions have been made on the platform, these figures seem like a mere drop in the ocean.

Polymarket excels at using collective intelligence to predict outcomes, yet that doesn't guarantee individual success. The overall accuracy of the market doesn’t mean every participant profits.

Even between October 6-8, during a surge of world events, we saw over 300,000 transactions per day, highlighting a massive interest in crypto gambling. So why is a market that appears unprofitable still drawing so much attention? Are bettors so hooked that they’re willing to gamble at a loss?

Even if the platform accurately predicts events, participants can still make losing bets or fail to optimize their strategies, resulting in losses.

Moreover, many traders use multiple wallets to diversify their bets, making it harder to gauge the true success of individual traders. A user might lose with one wallet but score a win with another.

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