Welcome to the Recession: New Reality, Old Tricks

Didn't you know that the recession in the US has already begun? And it started back in July!


There is a soup set of indicators that the Fed regularly feeds to the average person (for example, GDP data). Such statistics only partially reflect reality: all this data has already been taken into account by the market, so they are useless for an investor or trader.


But there are also leading indicators that are unfamiliar to the general public. One of them is the Sahm rule [Sahm Recession Indicator], named after a smart lady from the Fed who developed it. Here's the gist of it:


If the three-month moving average expressing the unemployment rate is more than 0.5% higher than the minimum value of this indicator over the past year, then the recession is already built into the market structure.

”


By the way, the rule has always worked like a Swiss watch.


So, everything is lost? The world is about to fall into the abyss of the Great Depression 2.0, time to run to the supermarket for a bag of canned goods?


Don't panic: there is a feeling that we are witnessing another mystification. "Buy assets, even when there is blood on the streets, even if it is yours," said baron Rothschild. Today's market is more manipulative than ever. Even the cycles of Bitcoin have become different, we are observing a left-handed formation for the first time. This is why it is highly likely that the alt season is just around the corner. The crisis, if it happens, will happen only later.


#Bitcoin #Recession #Fed #Great_Depression


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