Vladimir Okhotnikov

  Prediction markets work better than experts  In a world filled with experts of all kinds, prediction markets have suddenly emerged as a powerful tool for forecasting the future.  A week ago, Bloomberg integrated Polymarket election data into its Terminal. This is the most popular financial data platform for institutions with about 350K subscribers throughout the world. This move revealed a surprising truth. It turned out that prediction markets are more accurate than experts. How can that be? I was very surprised to hear that.   The reason is that experts rely on their specialized knowledge to make forecasts. Though experts can provide valuable insights, their predictions may not be that accurate. Actually, they perform even worse as they are heavily biased. Sometimes overconfidence is in the way. It clouds their judgment. Even statistical methods work better. What’s bad is that they create a false sense of security since you think you are protected by their level of expertise. They

An Unusual Twist in the Challenge of Mass Crypto Adoption It’s hard to break old habits for people. Change often meets resistance, even when it’s positive. This resistance is deeply rooted in human nature, a reluctance to step into the unknown. What is this? Fear? This hesitation persists even in the face of financial hardships. Even when people see that those who embrace change find more opportunities for growth and success, they still resist. It’s hard for me to understand.  This is what I think when I read about the disappointment of El Salvador’s head of state, Nayib Bukele. He admitted in the interview: "Bitcoin has not experienced the widespread adoption we had hoped for." The global community rejoiced when El Saldavor made Bitcoin legal tender. They hoped it would be an ideal example for other countries. Now it’s time to look back and draw conclusions from this experience. As a reminder, the country started buying bitcoin on a daily basis in 2022. The timing was perfec

 AI and Reality  The IT community is buzzing about Metaverses, WEB3, and AI. Soon, we'll see major technological changes, with full-fledged AI likely having the biggest impact on our lives. Current AI, while impressive, isn't truly intelligent yet. However, it's rapidly improving. In a few years, AI might outperform humans in intellectual and creative work, potentially replacing programmers, designers, writers, and artists. This technological leap could cause significant social upheaval. What will happen to millions of "extra" people whose jobs are taken by more efficient AI? Ironically, those now celebrating AI's advancements may soon find themselves jobless. #AIandReality #AIRevolution #FutureTechChanges

  Sony joins the blockchain trend with the Sonerium project  The renowned Japanese corporation Sony, an electronics and gaming giant, is now making strides into the blockchain space. It announced the creation of a global incubator called Sonerium Spark to support Web3 startups. It also launched the Sonerium Minato public testnet designed to become a hub for startups deploying their solutions on it.  The company provides robust infrastructure for building DeFi apps, grants expert mentorship, and strategic industry partnerships. The criteria for future participants haven’t been disclosed. However, we know of its focus on gaming and entertainment. The first companies to join the program are its own subsidiaries such as Sony Pictures and Sony Music. They will pilot and test it before opening the platform to startups.  I think it's a significant shift in Sony’s strategy, which demonstrates a forward-thinking approach. Tech companies will compete soon in the blockchain space, so the earl

The crisis is coming. Or not? It is not surprising that problems of such magnitude have emerged, but rather that they have been overlooked for so long. When someone tried to say that they consider a growing debt as a threat, serious financiers patted him on the back and explained that he was wrong. There was a paradigm of the invulnerability of the American economy. It was believed that it is so global that it could absorb any debt. And indeed, such a strategy worked, however, not because of economics, but because of politics. Investments in US debt were considered safe, given the undeniable power of the borrowing country. All of this worked perfectly until America’s debt became so high that its repayment prospects disappeared. At the same time, rival countries have called American credibility into question.  As a result, the debt became extremely toxic. In fact, the debt problem is not the root cause of the crisis. Such a crisis lies at the very foundation of our centralized financial

US crypto lobby has become more powerful than ever The growing debate around cryptocurrency regulation is a matter of concern among crypto-related entrepreneurs.  I am no exception. The problem is that restrictive policies stifle innovation in the industry. In response to these unfair anti-crypto measures, crypto companies started organizing their own crypto lobby. They realized that it’s practically impossible for the crypto sector to advance without a strong presence in Washington D.C. to influence government policy and regulation. Recent reports indicate that crypto lobbying efforts increased tenfold. The most active here are major firms like Coinbase and Apollo Global Management. As a result, the US crypto lobby has become more powerful than ever. They work tirelessly to ensure the interests of cryptocurrency businesses. However, this surge is just the beginning. When compared to other sectors, it turns out that the crypto industry is underrepresented in lobbying.   This is a devel